Report Compiled: 2020-05-02

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: df78742 Max Data Date: 2020-05-01

NYT Repo Commit: cf352f7 Max Data Date: 2020-05-01

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-12 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 493.2966 709.9852 1397.1431
2020-06-12 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 570.6522 1000.6095 2551.5902
2020-06-12 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 807.9783 1631.5328 3500.5980
2020-06-12 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 623.2832 1338.6913 4364.8662
2020-06-12 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 422.2216 1071.4075 11140.5657
2020-06-12 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 601.8333 2642.0573 12903.7646
2020-06-12 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 656.4079 1971.1157 5887.8798
2020-06-12 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 792.0575 2503.7343 7409.5538
2020-06-12 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 382.1091 713.8789 1636.9694
2020-06-12 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 582.9497 1042.5368 2419.6501
2020-06-12 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 908.1785 1693.8942 3203.8348
2020-06-12 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 575.6117 1518.3742 3752.1229
2020-06-12 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 296.4011 436.6677 846.7420
2020-06-12 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 374.6128 608.7369 1275.0204
2020-06-12 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 692.7992 1246.8798 2977.0865
2020-06-12 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 477.0895 939.3238 3599.9171
2020-05-16 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 235.5231 345.0888 685.4282
2020-05-16 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 286.2738 406.9911 704.5261
2020-05-16 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 285.1303 396.7286 599.4909
2020-05-16 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 281.1584 395.1122 569.6925